Iowa Caucus 2012
Restored from the Empower Network archive (2011–2017), lightly edited to meet our current advertising standards. Views are the original author’s.
The Iowa Caucus on January 3rd is the first true barometer for 2012 GOP presidential hopefuls. The Caucus allows candidates to gauge the effectiveness of their campaigns before any states run primaries. It is a somewhat controversial and ineffective indicator of national success, but it will surely garner the full attention of the GOP Candidates as throngs of passionate Iowans flood church basements to push support for their delegates. The Iowa Caucus has correctly predicted the nomination for the Democratic Party each year since 1992, when Bill Clinton received just 3% of the voters’ support. However for Republicans, Mike Huckabee won the caucus handedly in 2008 before falling to John McCain who received just 13% of Iowa’s support. It is impossible to tell if the Iowa Caucus will be an effective indicator of the coming election, but it is the first truly tangible polling for GOP candidates and immensely important in that regard.
Who Are The Main Candidates At The Iowa Caucus?
The three main candidates for the GOP presidential candidacy at this stage of the race appear to be Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, and Mitt Romney. Ron Paul has seen his numbers fall a bit since negative campaigning began, but the libertarian-leaning GOP candidate still led polls in Iowa as of mid-December. Newt Gingrich has a national lead, with Mitt Romney consistently right behind him. The Iowa Caucus will be an indication of where each of these candidates truly stands as the race to the primaries draws closer. The often-skewed voting of the caucus is still the best indicator of the 2012 GOP primary so far.
Ron Paul is anything but a traditional GOP candidate. His libertarian views define his presidential candidacy, perhaps better than the inflammatory and racist remarks of Paul’s publications 20 years ago that have found the headlines lately. Negative campaigning has cut into his lead in Iowa, but the idealist views of Ron Paul’s campaign are at the very least consistent. None of the other candidates can make such a claim and Paul’s dark horse candidacy appears to have a chance. Winning the Iowa Caucus would cement momentum for the underdog heading into the primaries and is particularly important with national support slipping away.
Who Is Leading In the Iowa Caucus?
Newt Gingrich still clings to a national lead in the polls, but his momentum has plateaued significantly in recent weeks. Gingrich is a far more traditional candidate than Paul, but his far larger following is far less passionate. With early success comes a harder look at what a candidate stands for, which can lead to waning support. The Iowa Caucus will indicate whether Gingrich has a legitimate chance at holding on to an early lead.
Mitt Romney may have the most to gain in the Iowa Caucus. Romney has been consistently pacing through the polls and a dip in Gingrich’s numbers may open the door for Romney’s surge. His aggressive, negative campaigning is beginning to paint Gingrich as inconsistent. Romney is making his move leading into the caucus, and if it pays off he could have all the momentum leading into the primaries.
The Iowa Caucus is an inconsistent but valuable indicator of early primary election success before the primaries actually begin. Ron Paul is holding onto early momentum in Iowa, Newt Gingrich’s national lead is slipping away, and Mitt Romney is making a push in the days leading up to the Iowa Caucus. There is an enormous amount of momentum and influence at stake, and the 2012 Iowa Caucus could be the most important in recent memory.
Until next time,
Wanda Mills
Enterprises by WJ, LLC
enterprisesbywjllc@gmail.com
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