What Is FX: Set The Alarm Clock
Restored from the Empower Network archive (2011–2017), lightly edited to meet our current advertising standards. Views are the original author’s.
What is FX Daily Report
What Is FX: Set The Clock For March 9
A Personal Invitation to trade with Bill Jenkins
March 1, 2012
10:30 PM EST
Good evening What Is FX traders; we sure hated the trading day today. Computer foul-ups linked with the absolute worst trading volatility made for a bad Thursday. I can’t really say why, but I usually tend to think of Thursdays as my best trading day. I usually have my best personal trades. Feel the most in tune with the market and overall look forward to making some money. Trading never seems quite as challenging on Thursday. But there’s always got to be an exception. Right?
Well it seems the euro/usd feel sound asleep and just ground around the low 1.33′s, the LRTO neither inspired as much excitement or doubt as I would have expected.
But here seems to be the bottom line from the perspective of What IS FX. We will be waiting for March 9. What’s so special about that Friday a week from tomorrow? That is when the bond swap window closes for the voluntary Greek bondholders. Seems every major player is waiting to make their decisions or financial commitments until after the swap window closes.
The EU will not make it’s financial pledge until after the ninth. The IMF will not decide their contribution until after the ninth. Although the ISDA stated today that a Greek default has not occurred, they also said that statement is not final as the situation is still evolving. Guess what? They will wait until after the bond swap operation!
If not enough qualified holders swap their bonds then the Greek gov’t will invoke the CAC and force the issue. This would trigger a default all on its’ own. At that point the ISDA can save face as a default will be a done deal.
The ISM was disappointing today as it fell sharply from expectations. Tomorrow we have the German Retail Sales, as well as Euro PMI. Sales are forecast higher as are inflationary pressure in the PMI. Both could serve to lift the euro, but I would not look for them to be game changers.
On the technical front, 1.33 is still the number that is in play for the euro. No bounce means limited buyers. No collapse means it may simply be exhausted for the move yesterday, or there is just no interest in trading the pair shorter.
Nevertheless, pressure remains to the downside, and there is nothing that is really supporting the pair either. I will be aside tonight, and remember that there will be no NFP tomorrow as that is moved to next Friday. As if that day weren’t big enough!
What Is FX Daily Directions
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Happy Trading!
Bill
traderwillie8782@yahoo.com
facebook.com/TheFXTradingMasters
What Is FX March Results: +0.0 pips.
What Is Fx Year-To-Date Results: +1,368.0 pips